The long awaited “taper” has finally come. After months of fear and speculation as to what the end of quantitative easing meant for rates, we saw little response to the actual news in the bond market. But in anticipation, we have already seen a big move up in rates since the lows of the 2013. With unemployment still elevated, very moderate global growth, minimal inflation, and the Fed explicitly clear in the message that tapering does not mean tightening, all the while extending their low interest rate policy for the next couple years, it is unclear that a rapid rise in rates is on the horizon, especially given the big move we have already seen. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that rates do rise even further. What does that mean for the high yield market and the various “strategies” out there to deal with rising rates? Click here to read our recent piece “Strategies for Investing in a Rising Rate Environment.”
Buying bonds and loans is simply lending a company money. What bank would lend money to every company that walked in the door with a belief that the law of large numbers would play out? Then why do investors believe that owning 600+ names in a passive high yield fund is the way to go?
To us, true high yield investing involves buying money good credits that are undervalued—in other words, paying the right price/generating the right yield given the company’s fundamentals. Instead, in the passive high yield ETFs available today have a huge portion of the portfolio generating a very paltry yield and bonds trading well above their call prices, and then sizable allocations to the highly levered LBOs and distressed investments that generate outsized yields, given the outsized risk. So this is basically the worst of both worlds. On one side, you are generating little yield and seemed to be positioned for principal losses on nearly half of the portfolio because many of the bond prices are currently well above the call or maturity price. On the other side, you are also potentially confronted with losses given the investments in companies facing what we see as likely restructurings in the future.
There is a middle ground for investors that can look for value and are not subject to structural limitations, such as issue size constraints hampering the passive ETFs. It is in this middle ground that we find the real opportunity in high yield investing. Click here to read our recently updated piece “The Necessity of Active Management in High Yield Investing” where we discuss why active management is essential in the high yield market.
We have all witnessed a major move in Treasury rates over the last couple months, causing concern for many that we may well be in the early stages of a rising interest rate environment. The traditional thought is that as interest rates rise, bond prices fall. But looking at history, the high yield market has defied this widely held notion. Let’s examine the four main reasons why high yield bonds have historically performed well during times of rising interest rates. Click here to read more.
I have been an investor in the energy space for over 25 years. Outside of interest rates, I don’t believe there is anything that dominates the global economy more than oil prices. It is a product that touches every area of our lives. Like it or hate it, that is the reality. In my opinion, there is something dramatically wrong, as crude oil and gasoline prices are near all-time highs, yet the global economy remains stuck in neutral. I believe that we are being fed a bunch of nonsense with the rhetoric that the U.S. will be energy independent and that new technologies have released a torrent of new oil reserves. The price action is telling us something else entirely. Click here to read more.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) for high yield bonds have become a bigger factor in today’s market. However, we believe that the passive, index-based funds have no ability to deal with risks in the current credit market. This involves credit risk, as well as call and pricing risks. The larger on the run names have become significantly over-valued as current market prices are way above their call price. We believe that this will lead to future principal losses, not from default but from these bonds being called well below current trading prices. Additionally, the passive funds hold numerous credits that in our mind are likely defaults and/or restructurings waiting to happen. By their passive nature, these funds do not sell or steer clear of these questionable securities or the over-valued bonds in today’s market. Furthermore, the largest high yield index based ETFs exclude a huge portion of the actual high yield market due to their issue size minimums.
Active management is essential in the high yield space; what you don’t buy is just as important as what you do buy. As an active manager, Peritus does not have the constraints these passive funds face and that flexibility gives us a dramatic advantage in today’s market.
Concerns about inflation and rising interest rates abound right now. The traditional thought is that as interest rates rise, bond prices fall. But looking at history, the high yield market has defied this widely held notion; instead, high yield has historically performed well during a rising rate environment. We look at the four main reasons that explain the high yield market’s lack of sensitivity to interest rates.
ETFs are one of the fastest growing investment products due to their ease of accessibility and operational tax efficient structure. The benefits to investing in an ETF include access, broad exposure, liquidity, transparency, tax efficiency, and income. Additionally, there are benefits to active management within the ETF space.
As we have discussed over the last few quarters we believe that equity investors have been involved in the biggest head fake in history. The notion that nothing in the economy has been fixed is now coming to the forefront.
Our belief is that credit is either AAA or D (paying and expected to continue to pay or not paying and in default). So to us this company was in effect AAA, while one of the major rating agencies was telling us that these bonds “are likely in, or very near default.” There continues to remain a massive disconnect among investors about the corporate bond market, the ratings process and risk.
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